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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	2	3	1	-	2.35	1.6	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.3	1.57

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.33	4.75	11	1.05	1.17	3.25	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.85	2	3.75	1.28

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.9% | EV +54.2% | ROI +52.0% | n=497 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +5.3% | EV +8.4% | ROI +12.2% | n=497 | k=1.57

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.9% | EV -4.4% | ROI +24.8% | n=497 | k=2.30

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.5% | EV -3.0% | ROI +0.2% | n=497 | k=2.00

AI-agent: At 39 minutes, Sassuolo leads Milan 1-0 in this Serie A match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping significantly from pre-match levels, reflecting their current dominance in shots and tempo. Historical data strongly supports a +1 handicap for Sassuolo, showing a 95.9% win rate and a 52% ROI over 497 similar matches. The model identifies a promising edge with a +32.9% advantage and an expected value of +54.2% on this handicap, but the entry conditions are not fully met yet, so no bet is recommended now. This is a monitoring situation where the home handicap looks attractive but requires caution and confirmation before placing a stake.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 39