Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	5	0	5	0	-	-	-	3.1	2.5	1.4
Away	1	0	0	3	2	1	1	-	2.85	1.5	1.35	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
29	6	1.17	5	1.12	1.01	-	-	1.68	2.15	4.5	1.2	13	1.04

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +6.2% | EV +15.5% | ROI -6.3% | n=87 | k=2.50

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +5.5% | EV +7.7% | ROI -0.2% | n=87 | k=1.40

3) Watch | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge +0.4% | EV +0.7% | ROI -9.5% | n=87 | k=1.68

4) Watch | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.3% | EV +6.0% | ROI -6.9% | n=87 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At the 66th minute, the Genoa vs Milan match stands balanced at 0:1 with no clear game dominance, although the market favors the guests with a 2.50 odds on home +1 handicap. Historical validation for this market is weak, showing a -6.3% ROI over 87 matches despite a positive model edge of +6.2% and EV of +15.5%. The market should stay on watch since the entry condition is not confirmed by the current score and tempo. Confirmation through changes in tempo, pressure, or shot statistics is needed before placing a bet.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378227 | minute: 66