Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	1.7	1.93	-	-	-
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	-	1.93	2.1

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.2	6.5	15	1.03	1.11	4.33	-	-	1.07	9	1.4	3	2.1	1.73

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +5.9% | EV +11.4% | ROI +2.1% | n=120 | k=1.92

2) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +14.1% | EV +61.2% | ROI +48.0% | n=120 | k=4.33

3) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.3% | EV +2.7% | ROI +27.8% | n=120 | k=2.10

4) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +0.3% | EV +0.4% | ROI -15.1% | n=120 | k=1.73

AI-agent: At 18 minutes into the Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace match, Bournemouth leads 1-0 and the market strongly favors the home side, with odds dropping 23% from pre-match levels reflecting their current advantage. Bournemouth's dominance is confirmed by shot statistics and recent pressure, aligning with the scoreline. Historical data for similar situations supports a home handicap -1 bet with a positive ROI of 2.1% and a fair odds estimate around 1.87. The model confirms this bet with an edge of +5.9% and expected value of +11.4%, though no new position is opened as this bet is already active or covered in the portfolio. Among top markets, the home handicap -1 is the recommended bet, balancing value and risk, while other options like double chance or away handicap are on watch for potential opportunities. This is a monitored situation with a clear edge on the home handicap, but prudent risk management is advised.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379311 | minute: 18