Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	10	5	5	2	-	1.5	2.5	2.02	-	-
Away	1	0	0	9	2	7	7	-	-	-	1.82	1.5	2.5

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.44	3.6	11	1.05	1.25	2.62	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.57	2.38

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +47.6% | EV +119.0% | ROI +84.0% | n=53 | k=2.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +6.3% | EV +9.5% | ROI -13.2% | n=53 | k=1.50

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.9% | EV -4.5% | ROI -10.4% | n=53 | k=2.38

4) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -4.6% | EV -12.2% | ROI -30.7% | n=53 | k=2.62

AI-agent: At 70 minutes with Newcastle leading 2-1, the market is favoring the home side as their odds have dropped significantly since pre-match, reflecting their active play and shot dominance despite recent pressure from Brighton. Historical data supports a strong value on the away handicap +1.5, showing a 73.6% win rate and an 84% ROI over 53 matches. The model identifies a promising edge and expected value on this handicap at odds of 2.50, but the entry conditions based on current score, tempo, and match stats are not yet met, so no bet is advised now. This is a watch situation to monitor for potential entry if conditions improve, with risk control recommended given the live match dynamics.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379317 | minute: 70