Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	9	4	5	5	-	2.35	1.38	1.24	-	-
Away	1	0	0	3	1	2	1	-	-	-	3.9	3	1.57

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.14	6	29	1.01	1.12	5.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.45	2.67

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +12.6% | EV +69.2% | ROI +27.4% | n=361 | k=5.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +14.1% | EV +42.3% | ROI +13.4% | n=361 | k=3.00

3) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.4% | EV +3.8% | ROI +84.5% | n=361 | k=1.57

4) Watch | DRAW | Edge +3.4% | EV +20.4% | ROI +17.2% | n=361 | k=6.00

AI-agent: At 65 minutes with Lyon leading 2-1, the market increasingly favors the home side, reflected by a 31% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Lyon confirms their advantage in shots, though recent play shows no sustained pressure from either team. Historical data supports a strong edge for the away handicap +1, with a 94.8% success rate and 13.4% ROI over 361 matches. The best model pick is AH_AWAY+1 at odds of 3.00, showing a 14.1% edge and 42.3% expected value. However, the entry rule is not yet triggered due to current match dynamics, so this remains a watch situation rather than a firm bet. The top-4 markets also suggest monitoring, with no mandatory entry recommended to control risk.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387972 | minute: 65