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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	10	5	5	5	-	2.5	1.4	1.24	-	-
Away	1	0	0	3	1	2	1	-	-	-	3.9	2.85	1.5

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.14	6.5	29	1.01	1.11	5.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.55	2.38

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +11.4% | EV +62.7% | ROI +59.4% | n=176 | k=5.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +12.9% | EV +36.8% | ROI +32.6% | n=176 | k=2.85

3) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.3% | EV +1.9% | ROI +18.5% | n=176 | k=1.50

4) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.1% | EV +7.4% | ROI +3.9% | n=176 | k=2.38

AI-agent: At the 70th minute with Lyon leading 2-1, the market strongly favors the home side, reflected by a 39% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Lyon confirms their advantage in shots, though recent play shows no sustained pressure from either team. Historical data for similar situations supports a bet on Auxerre with a +1 handicap, showing a 58% win rate and a 32.6% ROI, with a fair odds estimate of 1.73. The model identifies AH_AWAY+1 as the best value bet with a 12.9% edge and 36.8% expected value, but entry conditions are not yet met due to the current match dynamics. Top-4 markets suggest a watch status across all options, indicating this is a monitoring phase rather than a clear betting opportunity. The historical check is solid, but caution is advised given the match tempo and scoreline.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387972 | minute: 70