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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	3	0	0	12	6	6	5	-	5.5	1.43	1.24	-	-
Away	2	0	0	7	1	6	2	-	-	-	3.9	2.9	1.15

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.05	11	151	1.14	1.22	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +24.3% | EV +70.4% | ROI -92.6% | n=81 | k=2.90

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -2.7% | EV -14.7% | ROI +131.5% | n=81 | k=5.50

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -28.9% | EV -41.2% | ROI +97.2% | n=81 | k=1.42

4) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -25.5% | EV -53.6% | ROI -100.0% | n=81 | k=2.10

AI-agent: At the 86th minute, Lyon leads Auxerre 3-2 in this Ligue 1 match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 36% from pre-match levels, confirming Lyon's dominance in shots. However, recent play shows no sustained pressure from either team, and the scoreline fairly reflects the match flow. Historical data for similar situations is weak and shows a poor record for backing the away handicap +1, with a negative ROI of -92.6%. The model identifies a promising edge on AH_AWAY+1 with an expected value of +70.4%, but the entry conditions are not met due to current match dynamics, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Risk control advises monitoring rather than committing to a wager now.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387972 | minute: 86