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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	8	3	5	3	-	2.75	2.02	-	-	-
Away	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	-	-	-	-	1.82	1.43

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.5	3.5	8.5	1.07	1.28	2.5	-	-	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.73	2.1

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +23.3% | EV +58.3% | ROI +66.7% | n=264 | k=2.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +12.6% | EV +23.0% | ROI +46.3% | n=264 | k=1.82

3) Watch | DRAW | Edge +3.3% | EV +11.5% | ROI +15.3% | n=264 | k=3.50

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.2% | ROI +30.1% | n=264 | k=1.42

AI-agent: At 40 minutes into the Lille vs Le Havre match, the score is tied at 1-1 with no red cards. Market pressure is leaning towards a draw, with the odds dropping 26% from pre-match levels, reflecting Lille's dominance in shots and tempo. Historically, similar situations favor the double chance X2 (draw or away win) with a 66.7% success rate and a fair odds estimate of 1.50. The model identifies a strong edge (+23.3%) and expected value (+58.3%) for X2 at odds of 2.50, but the entry conditions based on current match dynamics are not fully met yet. The top-4 markets suggest monitoring X2 and Asian Handicap +1 for the away side, indicating a watch status rather than a firm bet recommendation due to ongoing game developments and risk considerations.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387978 | minute: 40