Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	-	2.85	1.45	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	-	-	2.67	1.4	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
4	3.5	1.91	1.8	1.28	1.22	1.06	10	1.3	3.5	2	1.85	3.5	1.3

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | HOME | Edge +5.8% | EV +23.2% | ROI +36.3% | n=408 | k=4.00

2) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +1.9% | EV +3.4% | ROI +16.5% | n=408 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +0.7% | EV +1.0% | ROI +11.0% | n=408 | k=1.45

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.7% | EV -3.1% | ROI +1.6% | n=408 | k=1.85

AI-agent: At 20 minutes into the Nantes vs Marseille match, the market shows clear pressure towards a draw with odds dropping 10% from pre-match levels, reflecting balanced play without dominance in shots or tempo. Historical data from 408 similar matches favors a home win with a 34.1% probability and a strong ROI of 36.3%, supported by a fair odds estimate of 2.94. The model identifies a home win as the best bet with an edge of +5.8% and expected value of +23.2%, but entry conditions are not yet met due to the current score and match dynamics. The top markets suggest monitoring the home win and double chance 1X options, while avoiding under 2.5 goals due to negative expected value. This is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing risk control and waiting for clearer signals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387981 | minute: 20