Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	8	4	4	0	-	-	-	2.67	2.15	1.55
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	4	-	2.38	1.68	1.45	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
9	4.5	1.36	3	1.18	1.07	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.68	2.15	3.2	1.36

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +8.7% | EV +13.5% | ROI +6.7% | n=106 | k=1.55

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +12.6% | EV +27.0% | ROI +18.8% | n=106 | k=2.15

3) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +5.3% | EV +16.0% | ROI +30.2% | n=106 | k=3.00

4) Watch | DRAW | Edge +0.5% | EV +2.2% | ROI +23.1% | n=106 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At 48 minutes, Leverkusen leads 1-0 against FC Koln, but the market pressure favors the home side with a 29% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Despite the scoreline, Koln is more active and pressing, showing higher shot activity than their recent head-to-head benchmark, while Leverkusen is below their usual level. Historical data supports a +1.5 handicap for Koln with a 68.9% win rate and a positive ROI of 6.7%, confirmed by the model with an 8.7% edge and 13.5% expected value at odds of 1.55. The best betting opportunity is on Koln +1.5 AH, but no new bet is opened as the position is already covered. Other markets like AH+1, Double Chance 1X, and Draw are on watch for potential entries. This is a monitoring situation with a clear edge on the handicap, but risk control advises caution before adding exposure.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388580 | minute: 48