Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	4	2	2	1	-	3	2.25	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	3	1	2	2	-	-	-	2.15	1.62	1.38

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.53	3.75	7.5	1.08	1.25	2.38	-	-	1.28	3.75	2.15	1.68	4.5	1.2

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.8% | EV +3.9% | ROI -0.7% | n=472 | k=1.38

2) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -0.6% | EV -1.0% | ROI -2.6% | n=472 | k=1.62

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.6% | EV -2.7% | ROI -1.7% | n=472 | k=1.68

4) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -4.0% | EV -9.4% | ROI -4.4% | n=472 | k=2.38

AI-agent: At the 46th minute, Heidenheim leads St Pauli 1-0 in a closely contested Bundesliga match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 30% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current score and Heidenheim's slightly higher shot activity. However, recent play shows no sustained dominance by either team, and the tempo is slower compared to their last meeting on December 13, 2025, which ended 2-1. Historical data for the away handicap +1.5 shows a 72.2% win rate but a negative ROI of -0.7%, indicating weak historical validation. The model signals a potential value bet on AH_AWAY+1.5 with a 2.8% edge and 3.9% expected value, but the entry is not confirmed due to the failed historical check. Overall, this is a watch situation rather than a clear betting opportunity, and caution is advised given the mixed signals and moderate risk.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 46