Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	5.25	2.2	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	10	2	8	5	-	-	-	2.15	1.7	1.16

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.22	4.5	34	1	1.18	4	-	-	2.25	1.68	10	1.06	3.2	1.36

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +20.4% | EV +27.8% | ROI +35.8% | n=290 | k=1.36

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +3.6% | EV +6.2% | ROI +3.6% | n=290 | k=1.70

3) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +2.2% | EV +8.6% | ROI -0.7% | n=290 | k=4.00

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -2.0% | EV -3.4% | ROI -4.1% | n=290 | k=1.68

AI-agent: At 77 minutes, Heidenheim leads St Pauli 1-0 in a closely contested Bundesliga match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 44% from pre-match levels, yet shot data does not confirm dominance by either team. Historical data strongly supports an under 3.5 goals outcome, with a 99.7% success rate over 290 similar matches and a solid ROI of 35.8%. The model confirms this with a 20.4% edge and 27.8% expected value, recommending a bet on under 3.5 goals at 1.36 odds. Other markets like Asian Handicap away +1 and double chance for St Pauli are watch-only, indicating monitoring rather than mandatory bets. Given the stable scoreline and balanced play, betting on under 3.5 goals offers a controlled risk opportunity aligned with historical trends and current market signals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 77