Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	5.25	2.15	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	10	2	8	5	-	-	-	2.15	1.73	1.16

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.2	4.75	41	1	1.17	4.33	-	-	2.4	1.6	11	1.05	3.2	1.36

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +20.4% | EV +27.8% | ROI +35.8% | n=275 | k=1.36

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +3.8% | EV +6.6% | ROI +2.4% | n=275 | k=1.73

3) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +3.0% | EV +13.0% | ROI -5.5% | n=275 | k=4.33

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -2.1% | EV -3.4% | ROI -2.3% | n=275 | k=1.60

AI-agent: At the 80th minute, Heidenheim leads St Pauli 1-0 in this Bundesliga match. Market pressure favors the home side with odds dropping significantly since pre-match, though shot data does not confirm dominance by either team and recent play shows no sustained pressure. Historical data strongly supports under 3.5 goals with a 99.6% win rate over 275 similar matches, yielding a solid ROI of 35.8%. The model confirms a strong edge of +20.4% and expected value of +27.8% for under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.36. However, no new bet is opened as this position is already held or covered in the portfolio. The top recommended bet remains under 3.5 goals with risk well controlled, while other markets are on watch or no bet, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 80