Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	2.75	1.5	-
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	2.5	1.43	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.75	3.9	1.91	1.8	1.22	1.25	1.03	15	1.17	5	1.53	2.5	2.3	1.61

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | HOME | Edge +8.3% | EV +31.0% | ROI +34.3% | n=751 | k=3.75

2) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +3.0% | EV +5.4% | ROI +14.3% | n=751 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +1.6% | EV +2.4% | ROI +12.8% | n=751 | k=1.50

4) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +1.1% | EV +1.8% | ROI -0.6% | n=751 | k=1.61

AI-agent: At 1 minute into the match between M'gladbach and Dortmund, the score is 0-0 with no red cards. The market shows no strong signal or significant odds drop from pre-match levels, indicating balanced pressure. Shot data does not confirm dominance by either side, and both teams are playing at a slower pace compared to their last meeting on 19.12.2025, which ended 2-0. Historical data from 751 similar matches favors a home win with a 35.8% probability and a positive ROI of 34.3%, supporting a fair odds level around 2.79. The model currently sees value in a home win at odds of 3.75 with an edge of +8.3% and expected value of +31.0%, but the entry conditions based on current score, tempo, and stats are not yet met, so no bet is advised now. The top-4 markets suggest watching the home win and related options with moderate edges, emphasizing a monitoring stance rather than a mandatory bet to control risk.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388589 | minute: 1