Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.68	1.45
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.67	2.15	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.1	7	1.53	2.5	2.62	1.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.7% | EV +4.0% | ROI -2.1% | n=434 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.3% | EV -3.5% | ROI +0.3% | n=434 | k=1.53

3) No Bet | HOME | Edge -0.3% | EV -1.8% | ROI +10.6% | n=434 | k=6.00

4) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -2.2% | EV -3.4% | ROI -8.8% | n=434 | k=1.50

AI-agent: At 20 minutes, Mainz leads 1-0 against St Pauli, but the game shows no clear dominance from either side despite the scoreline. Market pressure favors Mainz, with odds dropping 37% from pre-match levels, yet shot data does not confirm a strong advantage. Historically, the Asian Handicap +1.5 for St Pauli has a 67.5% win rate but a negative ROI of -2.1%, and this historical edge is not confirmed here. Our model identifies a potential value bet on St Pauli +1.5 with a 2.7% edge and 4.0% expected value, but given the weak historical validation, this is a watch situation rather than a firm betting opportunity. Other top markets suggest no bet at this stage, so cautious monitoring is advised without immediate stake placement.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 20