Match Replay

Step 16 of 72. Current minute: 21 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.7	1.45
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.67	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.1	7	1.53	2.5	2.62	1.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +3.0% | EV +4.3% | ROI -0.8% | n=440 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.3% | EV -3.5% | ROI -0.7% | n=440 | k=1.53

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.2% | EV -3.8% | ROI -1.2% | n=440 | k=1.70

4) No Bet | HOME | Edge -0.3% | EV -1.8% | ROI +14.5% | n=440 | k=6.00

AI-agent: At 21 minutes, Mainz leads 1-0 against St Pauli, with no red cards yet. Market pressure favors the guests, reflected by a 37% drop in odds from pre-match levels, but shot data does not confirm dominance by either side. The game tempo is balanced without sustained pressure, and historical data for similar situations is weak, showing a negative ROI and failing the reliability check. The model identifies a potential value bet on St Pauli with a +1.5 handicap at 1.45 odds and a positive expected value, but due to the weak historical confirmation, this is a watch situation rather than a firm recommendation. Other top markets do not suggest favorable bets, so cautious monitoring is advised without mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 21