Match Replay

Step 17 of 72. Current minute: 22 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.7	1.45
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.67	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.11	6.5	1.57	2.38	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +3.2% | EV +4.7% | ROI -0.9% | n=458 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.0% | EV -3.5% | ROI -0.9% | n=458 | k=1.70

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.5% | EV -4.0% | ROI +0.2% | n=458 | k=1.57

4) No Bet | HOME | Edge -0.3% | EV -1.8% | ROI +10.0% | n=458 | k=6.00

AI-agent: At 22 minutes, Mainz leads St Pauli 1-0, with market pressure favoring the visitors as their odds dropped 37% from pre-match levels. However, shot data and recent play show no clear dominance by either side, and the historical check for a home handicap +1.5 bet is weak with a negative ROI. The model signals a potential edge on AH_HOME+1.5 with +3.2% edge and +4.7% expected value, but the historical validation is not confirmed, so no new bet is opened. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory entry, and caution is advised given the mixed signals and lack of clear game control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 22