Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	2.75
Away	2	0	0	8	2	6	5	-	1.43	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
26	9.5	1.08	8	1.06	1.01	-	-	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.9	1.95

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +30.7% | EV +61.4% | ROI -8.9% | n=470 | k=2.00

2) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.1% | EV -2.1% | ROI -5.1% | n=470 | k=1.95

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.2% | EV -0.4% | ROI -3.5% | n=470 | k=2.75

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.8% | EV -8.2% | ROI -9.0% | n=470 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At 39 minutes in the Bundesliga match between St Pauli and Mainz, Mainz leads 2-0 and is showing clear market strength with odds dropping 57% from pre-match levels. The guests have been more active in shots and pressure recently, reflecting the scoreline well. Historical data for similar situations with a -1 handicap on Mainz is weak and shows a negative ROI, so despite a model edge of +30.7% and EV of +61.4% at odds of 2.00, the entry rule is not confirmed. This is a watch situation rather than a firm betting opportunity, and caution is advised given the historical uncertainty and current market signals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 39