Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	2.05	1.8	1.45
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	2.67	2.05	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
5.5	4	1.57	2.25	1.22	1.14	1.07	9	1.06	10	1.36	3.2	2.1	1.73

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +12.0% | EV +17.4% | ROI +22.7% | n=2452 | k=1.45

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +10.3% | EV +18.6% | ROI +36.0% | n=2452 | k=1.80

3) No Bet | HOME | Edge -0.4% | EV -2.0% | ROI +90.4% | n=2452 | k=5.50

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.2% | EV -7.1% | ROI +70.8% | n=2452 | k=3.20

AI-agent: At 6 minutes into the St Pauli vs Mainz Bundesliga match, the score remains 0-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors Mainz, with odds dropping 35% from pre-match levels, though shot data does not clearly support dominance by either side. The home team is applying pressure recently, but the game flow is balanced. Historical data supports a strong edge on the home Asian Handicap +1.5, showing an 84.6% win rate and 22.7% ROI over 2452 matches. The model confirms this with a 12% edge and 17.4% expected value at odds of 1.45. However, no new bet is opened as this position is already active or covered. This is the best betting opportunity currently, but risk should be managed carefully. Other markets like AH +1 and Under 2.5 goals are on watch or no bet, indicating a monitoring phase rather than mandatory entries.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 6