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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	2.85
Away	2	0	0	9	3	6	5	-	1.4	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
29	11	1.06	10	1.05	1.01	-	-	-	-	1.28	3.75	2.25	1.62

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.2% | EV +64.4% | ROI +52.0% | n=175 | k=2.00

2) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -2.7% | EV -4.3% | ROI -10.9% | n=175 | k=1.62

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.5% | EV -1.5% | ROI -7.2% | n=175 | k=2.85

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.9% | EV -7.1% | ROI +0.7% | n=175 | k=3.75

AI-agent: At halftime, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-0, reflecting the match dynamics where Mainz has been more active in shots and applying pressure, especially in the recent phase. Market odds have shifted significantly in favor of Mainz, with the handicap -1 showing strong historical performance: 81.4% win rate and a 52% ROI over 175 similar matches. The model confirms a positive edge of +32.2% and expected value of +64.4% on the AH_AWAY-1 bet at odds of 2.00. However, no new bet is opened now as the position is already covered. Other markets like under 3.5 goals or home handicap show negative expected value, so this is a clear focus on the away handicap. Given the strong statistical backing and current match pressure, this is a good monitoring situation with a clear edge on the away handicap, but risk should be managed carefully.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 45