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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	2.85
Away	2	0	0	9	3	6	5	-	1.4	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
29	11	1.06	10	1.05	1.01	-	-	-	-	1.28	3.75	2.2	1.65

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.2% | EV +64.4% | ROI +52.0% | n=175 | k=2.00

2) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -2.6% | EV -4.3% | ROI -9.5% | n=175 | k=1.65

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.5% | EV -1.5% | ROI -7.2% | n=175 | k=2.85

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.9% | EV -7.1% | ROI +0.7% | n=175 | k=3.75

AI-agent: At the 45th minute, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-0 in a match where the market strongly favors the away side, with odds dropping 58% from pre-match levels reflecting the current scoreline. Mainz has been more active in shots and pressure, especially in the recent phase, aligning with the score. Historical data supports a -1 handicap on Mainz with an 81.4% win rate and a 52% ROI over 175 matches, confirming a solid edge. The model confirms this bet with a 32.2% edge and 64.4% expected value at odds of 2.00. Although the position is already open or covered, this remains the best value bet here. Other markets like under 3.5 goals or home +1.5 handicap show negative expected value, so monitoring rather than new entries is advised to control risk.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 45