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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	6	0	6	6	-	-	-	2.05	1.85	4.1
Away	2	0	0	16	6	10	6	-	1.23	2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
67	19	1.02	19	1.02	1	-	-	-	-	1.82	2.02	5	1.17

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +35.4% | EV +70.8% | ROI +81.1% | n=175 | k=2.00

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.2% | EV +4.9% | ROI -36.7% | n=175 | k=4.10

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.0% | EV -6.0% | ROI +20.3% | n=175 | k=2.02

4) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.2% | EV -2.2% | ROI -26.0% | n=175 | k=1.82

AI-agent: At the 74th minute, Mainz leads St Pauli 2-0 in this Bundesliga match. Market pressure clearly favors Mainz, with odds dropping significantly from pre-match levels, reflecting their active shot count and overall control. Historical data strongly supports a -1 handicap on Mainz, showing a 96.1% win rate and an 81.1% ROI over 175 matches, confirming the model's edge of +35.4% and an expected value of +70.8%. Although the position is already covered in the portfolio, this remains the best betting opportunity with controlled risk. Other markets like over/under 2.5 goals are less favorable, so monitoring is advised rather than new bets now.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 74