Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	-	-	-	2	1.75	1.38
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	3	2.12	1.85	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6.5	4	1.53	2.38	1.22	1.11	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.7	2.1	3.2	1.36

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.5% | EV +5.2% | ROI +2.6% | n=473 | k=2.10

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +2.8% | EV +4.9% | ROI -1.5% | n=473 | k=1.75

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.0% | EV +4.1% | ROI +4.3% | n=473 | k=1.36

4) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +3.5% | EV +4.8% | ROI -5.5% | n=473 | k=1.38

AI-agent: At 40 minutes, FC Koln leads Union Berlin 1-0, with market pressure favoring the guests as their odds dropped significantly since pre-match. Despite Koln's lead, the game shows no clear dominance in shots, and Union Berlin is applying pressure recently. Both teams are playing at a slower pace compared to their last meeting, where Koln also won 1-0. Historical data for the home handicap +1.5 shows a positive win rate but a negative ROI, indicating weak historical confirmation. The model signals a potential bet on AH_HOME+1.5 with a moderate edge and expected value, but the entry is not confirmed due to the historical check failing. Top-4 markets suggest watching under 2.5 goals or home handicap lines with small edges, recommending monitoring rather than a firm bet to manage risk effectively.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388594 | minute: 40