Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	-	2.12	1.93	1.5
Away	1	0	0	5	2	3	3	-	2.5	1.93	1.75	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3	3.1	2.5	1.5	1.33	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.08	8	1.44	2.75

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +25.9% | EV +49.8% | ROI NA | n=1636 | k=1.92

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +15.6% | EV +23.4% | ROI NA | n=1636 | k=1.50

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.4% | EV +12.1% | ROI +2.4% | n=1636 | k=2.75

4) Watch | HOME | Edge +0.3% | EV +0.9% | ROI -6.7% | n=1636 | k=3.00

AI-agent: At the 21st minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market is favoring a draw, reflected by a 9% drop in odds from pre-match levels. The game remains balanced, though Sociedad shows more activity in shots and tempo, outperforming their previous head-to-head benchmark, while Vallecano is below their usual level. Historical data for similar situations suggests a strong edge for a +1.5 handicap on the home side, but the historical check is weak and ROI data is unavailable. The model signals a +1.5 handicap bet for Vallecano with a positive edge and expected value, yet no new bet is opened due to the unconfirmed historical validation. Top-4 markets recommend watching rather than betting now, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry. Caution is advised given the current balance and incomplete historical confirmation.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 21