Match Replay

Step 22 of 93. Current minute: 26 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	-	2.15	1.93	1.5
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.5	1.93	1.68	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.1	3	2.4	1.5	1.36	1.33	-	-	-	-	1.1	7	1.5	2.62

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +14.9% | EV +22.3% | ROI +35.0% | n=160 | k=1.50

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +24.9% | EV +47.8% | ROI +54.8% | n=160 | k=1.92

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.7% | EV +12.4% | ROI +19.8% | n=160 | k=2.62

4) No Bet | HOME | Edge -0.2% | EV -0.5% | ROI +20.1% | n=160 | k=3.10

AI-agent: At 26 minutes into the Vallecano vs Sociedad match, the score is tied 1-1 with no red cards. Market pressure is favoring the visitors, reflected by a 41% drop in odds from pre-match levels, and Sociedad has been more active in shots despite the balanced scoreline. Historical data supports a strong edge for a +1.5 handicap on Vallecano, with a 90% win rate and 35% ROI over 160 similar matches. The model confirms this bet with a 14.9% edge and 22.3% expected value, making AH_HOME+1.5 the recommended bet now. Other markets suggest monitoring but not mandatory entries. This is a controlled risk opportunity based on solid historical and live match evidence.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 26