Match Replay

Step 23 of 93. Current minute: 26 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	-	-	-	1.95	1.98	1.5
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.5	1.88	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
7.5	4	1.44	2.62	1.22	1.08	-	-	1.1	7	1.53	2.5	2.62	1.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.0% | EV +4.4% | ROI +19.8% | n=160 | k=1.50

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.1% | EV +5.2% | ROI -3.8% | n=160 | k=2.50

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -0.1% | EV -0.2% | ROI +54.8% | n=160 | k=1.98

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -1.1% | EV -1.6% | ROI +35.0% | n=160 | k=1.50

AI-agent: At 26 minutes with Sociedad leading 1-0, the market shows increased confidence in the visitors, reflected by a 41% drop in odds from pre-match levels. The game remains competitive, with Sociedad more active in shots and tempo, though no sustained pressure from either side recently. Historical data supports betting under 3.5 total goals, with a positive ROI of 19.8% from 160 similar matches and a fair odds estimate of 2.19. The model indicates a slight edge (+3.0%) and expected value (+4.4%) for under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.50, but this is just at the threshold for opening a position. Top-4 markets suggest watching under 3.5 and 2.5 goals with moderate edges, while Asian handicap bets on Vallecano are not recommended currently. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing risk control given the close score and match dynamics.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 26