Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	-	-	-	1.95	1.85	1.45
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.67	2	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6.5	4	1.53	2.38	1.22	1.11	-	-	1.08	8	1.5	2.62	2.38	1.57

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +2.8% | EV +4.4% | ROI +19.8% | n=160 | k=1.57

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.3% | EV +5.9% | ROI -3.8% | n=160 | k=2.62

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.0% | EV -1.8% | ROI +54.8% | n=160 | k=1.85

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -2.4% | EV -3.5% | ROI +35.0% | n=160 | k=1.45

AI-agent: At 26 minutes into the Vallecano vs Sociedad match, Sociedad leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the visitors, with odds dropping 41% from pre-match levels, reflecting their active shot count and game control. The match remains balanced without sustained pressure from either side recently. Historical data supports under 3.5 goals with a 45.6% probability and a positive ROI of 19.8%, confirmed by a solid sample of 160 matches. The best model suggestion is under 3.5 goals at 1.57 odds, showing a modest edge of +2.8% and expected value of +4.4%, but this edge is slightly below the minimum threshold for a confident bet. Top-4 markets recommend watching under 3.5 goals as a monitoring opportunity rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing cautious risk management given the current game dynamics and historical trends.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 26