Match Replay

Step 33 of 93. Current minute: 38 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	3	1	2	1	-	-	-	1.9	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	1.95	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.75	2.88	1.36	1.4	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.17	5	1.73	2.1

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +16.8% | EV +23.9% | ROI +28.8% | n=250 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +28.3% | EV +50.9% | ROI +44.5% | n=250 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.2% | EV +8.9% | ROI +11.7% | n=250 | k=2.10

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.6% | EV +8.2% | ROI -8.0% | n=250 | k=5.00

AI-agent: At 38 minutes with the score tied at 1-1, the market is favoring a draw, reflected by a 17% drop in odds since pre-match. The game remains balanced, but Sociedad shows more activity in shots and tempo, consistent with their stronger performance compared to the last meeting. Historical data supports a +1.5 handicap for Vallecano with over 90% win rate and solid ROI, which aligns with the current model signal offering a 16.8% edge and 23.9% expected value. Although this position is already covered in the portfolio, this remains the best bet with controlled risk. Other markets suggest watching rather than entering new bets now, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory play.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 38