Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.88	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.98	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3	2.4	3.2	1.33	1.5	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.38	1.57

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +21.6% | EV +30.8% | ROI +33.4% | n=328 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +34.0% | EV +61.1% | ROI +50.4% | n=328 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +2.8% | EV +4.4% | ROI +10.2% | n=328 | k=1.57

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.0% | EV +6.9% | ROI +8.8% | n=328 | k=3.50

AI-agent: At the 52nd minute with the score tied at 1-1, the market favors a draw, reflected by a 27% drop in odds from pre-match levels. The game remains balanced, though Sociedad shows more shot activity and slightly higher tempo compared to previous encounters. Historical data supports a strong edge for a home handicap +1.5 bet, with a 93.6% win rate and 33.4% ROI over 328 similar matches. Our model confirms this with a 21.6% edge and 30.8% expected value, but no new bet is opened as this position is already held or covered. The top recommended bet is AH_HOME+1.5, which offers good value but should be managed carefully within the portfolio. Other markets like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5/2.5 goals are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 52