Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	2	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.85	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.25	2.38	3	1.36	1.53	1.33	-	-	-	-	1.33	3.4	2.5	1.53

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +22.2% | EV +31.7% | ROI +33.9% | n=331 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +34.4% | EV +62.0% | ROI +51.0% | n=331 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +2.9% | EV +4.4% | ROI +10.2% | n=331 | k=1.53

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.3% | EV +7.8% | ROI +14.0% | n=331 | k=3.40

AI-agent: At the 54th minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market is favoring a draw, with odds dropping 28% from pre-match levels reflecting the current scoreline. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots and overall play, showing increased tempo compared to their last meeting. Historical data supports a strong edge for a +1.5 handicap on Vallecano, with a 94% win rate and a 33.9% ROI over 331 similar matches. The model confirms this bet with a 22.2% edge and 31.7% expected value, but no new position is opened as this bet is already held or covered in the portfolio. Among top markets, the best bet is on Vallecano +1.5 handicap, offering a good risk-reward profile, while other options like AH+1 and under 3.5 or 2.5 goals are on watch. This is a favorable situation to consider the +1.5 handicap on Vallecano with appropriate risk management.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 54