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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	4	1	3	1	-	-	-	1.82	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	2.02	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.75	3	1.36	1.4	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.17	5	1.73	2.1

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +17.7% | EV +25.2% | ROI +28.5% | n=264 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +29.4% | EV +52.9% | ROI +43.2% | n=264 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.2% | EV +8.9% | ROI +15.3% | n=264 | k=2.10

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.6% | EV +8.2% | ROI -5.3% | n=264 | k=5.00

AI-agent: At the 40th minute of the Vallecano vs Sociedad match, the score is tied 1-1 with no red cards. The market is favoring a draw, with odds dropping 17% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current balanced scoreline. Sociedad has been more active in shots overall, but Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home handicap +1.5, with a 90.2% win rate and 28.5% ROI over 264 similar matches. The model confirms this bet with a 17.7% edge and 25.2% expected value, though no new position is opened as it may already be covered. Among top markets, the best bet is on AH_HOME+1.5, offering a good risk-reward profile, while other options like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5 goals are on watch for potential future opportunities. This is a favorable moment to consider the home handicap +1.5 with appropriate risk control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 40