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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.82	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	2.02	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.75	3	1.36	1.4	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.82	2.02

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +18.7% | EV +26.6% | ROI +26.2% | n=289 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +30.5% | EV +54.9% | ROI +40.1% | n=289 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.8% | EV +9.6% | ROI +17.0% | n=289 | k=2.02

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.8% | EV +8.0% | ROI -9.7% | n=289 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At 42 minutes with the score tied 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market favors a draw, with odds dropping 17% from pre-match levels. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home handicap +1.5, showing an 88.6% win rate and a 26.2% ROI over 289 matches. The model confirms this with an 18.7% edge and 26.6% expected value, and this bet is already included in the portfolio. Among top markets, the best bet remains AH_HOME+1.5, offering a good risk-reward profile. Other options like AH_HOME+1 and under goals markets are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory bet now.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 42