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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.8	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	2.05	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.62	3.1	1.33	1.44	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.88	1.98

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +19.0% | EV +27.1% | ROI +26.9% | n=292 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +31.0% | EV +55.8% | ROI +40.8% | n=292 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.8% | EV +9.5% | ROI +15.0% | n=292 | k=1.98

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +1.8% | EV +8.0% | ROI -7.5% | n=292 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At the 43rd minute with the score tied at 1-1, the market shows strong support for a home handicap +1.5 bet, with odds dropping 20% from pre-match levels reflecting the current scoreline. The game is balanced but Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data for similar situations strongly favors the home handicap +1.5 with an 89% win rate and a solid ROI of 26.9%. The model confirms this bet with a 19% edge and 27.1% expected value, though no new position is opened as it may already be covered. Among top markets, the best bet is AH_HOME+1.5, offering a good risk-reward profile; other options are on watch, indicating monitoring rather than mandatory entry. Overall, this is a favorable but controlled opportunity to consider the home handicap +1.5 given the match dynamics and historical evidence.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 43