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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.82	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	6	3	3	3	-	2.75	2.05	2.02	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.75	2.62	3.1	1.33	1.44	1.4	-	-	-	-	1.22	4.33	1.98	1.88

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +19.6% | EV +28.0% | ROI +28.0% | n=295 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +31.7% | EV +57.0% | ROI +43.0% | n=295 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.6% | EV +8.7% | ROI +13.8% | n=295 | k=1.88

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.0% | EV +8.5% | ROI -1.6% | n=295 | k=4.33

AI-agent: At the 45th minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market shows increased confidence in a draw, with odds dropping 24% from pre-match levels. The game has been balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots, while Vallecano is applying pressure in the latest phase. Historical data supports a strong advantage for the home handicap +1.5, with an 89.8% win rate and a 28% ROI over 295 matches. The model confirms this with a 19.6% edge and 28% expected value, but no new bet is opened as this position is already covered. Among top markets, the best bet is on AH_HOME+1.5, offering a good risk-reward profile, while other options like AH_HOME+1 and under goals are on watch, suggesting monitoring rather than immediate entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 45