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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.9	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.95	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3	2.5	3.1	1.33	1.5	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.25	4	2.2	1.67

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +20.6% | EV +29.4% | ROI +32.6% | n=302 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.7% | EV +58.9% | ROI +49.2% | n=302 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.3% | EV +5.6% | ROI +13.1% | n=302 | k=1.67

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.0% | EV +8.0% | ROI +17.9% | n=302 | k=4.00

AI-agent: At the 49th minute with the score tied at 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market shows a strong inclination towards a draw, with odds dropping 24% from pre-match levels. The game remains balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots. Historical data supports a bet on Vallecano with a +1.5 handicap, showing a 93% win rate and a 32.6% ROI over 302 matches. The model confirms this with a 20.6% edge and 29.4% expected value, and this bet is currently active in the portfolio. Other markets like AH +1, U3.5, and U2.5 are on watch for potential opportunities but are not recommended for new bets now. This is a monitored situation with a clear value bet on AH +1.5, but risk control advises no additional entries at this moment.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 49