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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.9	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.95	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3	2.4	3.1	1.33	1.5	1.36	-	-	-	-	1.28	3.75	2.3	1.61

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +20.9% | EV +29.8% | ROI +32.5% | n=315 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.1% | EV +59.7% | ROI +48.6% | n=315 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +3.2% | EV +5.1% | ROI +8.7% | n=315 | k=1.61

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.2% | EV +8.2% | ROI +6.0% | n=315 | k=3.75

AI-agent: At the 50th minute, the score is tied 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, with no red cards. The market strongly favors a draw, with odds dropping 27% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current balanced scoreline. Although the game is even, Sociedad has been more active in shots, but no sustained pressure from either side recently. Historical data supports a strong edge for a home Asian Handicap +1.5 bet, with a 93% win rate and 32.5% ROI over 315 matches. The model confirms this bet with a 20.9% edge and nearly 30% expected value, but no new position is opened as it is already held or covered. This is the best bet opportunity, though risk should be managed carefully. Other markets like AH_HOME+1 and under 3.5 or 2.5 goals are on watch, indicating monitoring rather than mandatory entries.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 50