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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	1	4	2	-	-	-	1.9	1.8	1.43
Away	1	0	0	7	3	4	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.95	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.1	2.4	3.1	1.33	1.5	1.33	-	-	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.38	1.57

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +21.3% | EV +30.3% | ROI +32.7% | n=321 | k=1.42

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.5% | EV +60.2% | ROI +49.7% | n=321 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +2.8% | EV +4.4% | ROI +8.2% | n=321 | k=1.57

4) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +2.0% | EV +6.9% | ROI +3.6% | n=321 | k=3.50

AI-agent: At 51 minutes with the score tied 1-1 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market favors a draw as the odds have dropped 27% from pre-match levels. The game remains balanced, though Sociedad has been more active in shots. Historical data supports a strong advantage for the home handicap +1.5, with a 93.1% win rate and 32.7% ROI over 321 matches. The model confirms this with a 21.3% edge and 30.3% expected value, but no new bet is opened since this position is already held or covered. Among top markets, the best bet is AH_HOME+1.5, offering good value with controlled risk, while other options are on watch, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 51