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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	12	6	6	4	-	-	-	1.95	1.65	2.38
Away	2	0	0	10	6	4	4	-	1.55	2.3	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
34	10	1.07	9	1.06	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.07	9

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +42.3% | EV +100.4% | ROI +21.8% | n=112 | k=2.38

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +4.3% | EV +9.9% | ROI -80.7% | n=112 | k=2.30

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -8.4% | EV -13.9% | ROI +52.2% | n=112 | k=1.65

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -48.9% | EV -75.8% | ROI -93.0% | n=112 | k=1.55

AI-agent: At the 75th minute in the Vallecano vs Sociedad match, Sociedad leads 2-1 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the away team, reflected by a 61% drop in odds from pre-match levels, confirming their active play and shot dominance. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home team with AH+1.5, showing a 98.2% win rate and 21.8% ROI over 112 matches, and the model confirms this with a +42.3% edge and +100.4% expected value. Although the model signals a bet on AH_HOME+1.5 at 2.38 odds, no new position is opened as this is already covered. The top recommendation remains to back AH_HOME+1.5 with risk control, while other handicap options are less favorable or for monitoring only.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 75