Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	-	-	2.42	1.98	-	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	-	1.88	1.52	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.73	3.6	4.75	1.17	1.25	2	-	-	1.1	7	1.53	2.5	2.62	1.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.7% | EV -4.2% | ROI +12.4% | n=382 | k=2.42

2) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.7% | EV -1.1% | ROI +4.3% | n=382 | k=1.53

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -4.5% | EV -6.8% | ROI -13.2% | n=382 | k=1.50

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -5.1% | EV -7.7% | ROI -15.5% | n=382 | k=1.52

AI-agent: At 15 minutes into the match, Alaves leads 1-0 against Ath Bilbao. The market favors the home side, with odds dropping 36% from pre-match levels, reflecting their slight dominance in shots and activity compared to the visitors. The historical data supports a total over 2.5 goals with a 68% win rate in similar situations, but the current model edge is negative, so no bet is advised now. This is a monitoring phase rather than a clear entry opportunity, and caution is recommended given the model's expected negative value despite the positive historical ROI.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 15