Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	2	1	1	1	-	-	2.75	1.98	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	-	-	-	1.88	1.43	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.67	3.4	6	1.12	1.3	2.1	-	-	1.28	3.75	2.2	1.65	4.5	1.2

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.1% | EV +0.2% | ROI +4.4% | n=491 | k=2.20

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.3% | EV -6.4% | ROI +9.1% | n=491 | k=2.75

3) No Bet | Double Chance 12 | Edge -2.4% | EV -3.1% | ROI -6.0% | n=491 | k=1.30

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -6.2% | EV -10.2% | ROI -13.3% | n=491 | k=1.65

AI-agent: At the 42nd minute, Alaves leads Ath Bilbao 1-0 in a closely contested LaLiga match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 38% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current score and active shot count by Alaves. Historical data on over 2.5 goals shows a slight positive edge with a 47.5% win rate and a modest ROI of 4.4%, supporting the over 2.5 goals bet at odds of 2.20. However, the model's edge is only +0.1%, below the threshold for opening a bet, so this remains a watch situation rather than a mandatory entry. Other popular bets like Asian Handicap -1 for Alaves or Double Chance do not show positive expected value currently. Overall, this is a monitoring phase with a cautious lean towards over 2.5 goals, but no strong betting signal yet.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 42