Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	6	3	3	2	-	4.8	2.4	2.12	-	-
Away	2	0	0	6	2	4	4	-	-	-	1.75	1.6	1.18

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
5	1.57	4.33	1.2	2.25	1.17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.2% | EV +53.1% | ROI -6.5% | n=176 | k=1.60

2) Watch | HOME | Edge +0.3% | EV +1.7% | ROI -0.3% | n=176 | k=5.00

3) No Bet | Double Chance 12 | Edge -1.6% | EV -3.6% | ROI -1.4% | n=176 | k=2.25

4) No Bet | AWAY | Edge -0.6% | EV -2.4% | ROI -16.5% | n=176 | k=4.33

AI-agent: At 74 minutes in this tight LaLiga match between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao, the score is level at 2-2. Market pressure favors a draw, with odds dropping significantly from pre-match levels, reflecting the current balanced state. Alaves are pressing more actively in the recent phase, showing higher shot activity than their opponents, who are underperforming compared to their previous encounters. Historical data for the away handicap +1 shows a slight positive edge but with a negative ROI and weak confirmation, so caution is advised. The best model suggestion is the away +1 handicap with good expected value, but entry conditions are not met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm betting opportunity. Risk control is important given the mixed signals and the close scoreline.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 74