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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	2	1	1	1	-	-	2.67	1.98	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	-	-	-	1.88	1.45	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.67	3.4	5.5	1.14	1.3	2.1	-	-	1.22	4.33	2.05	1.8	4.33	1.22

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.7% | EV +1.5% | ROI +2.3% | n=497 | k=2.05

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.9% | EV -7.7% | ROI +6.9% | n=497 | k=2.67

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -5.1% | EV -9.1% | ROI -9.8% | n=497 | k=1.80

4) No Bet | Double Chance 12 | Edge -2.0% | EV -2.6% | ROI -4.8% | n=497 | k=1.30

AI-agent: At 39 minutes, Alaves leads Ath Bilbao 1-0 in a closely contested LaLiga match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 38% from pre-match levels, reflecting their slight dominance in shots and the current scoreline. Historical data on over 2.5 goals shows a balanced outcome with a slight positive ROI, and the model identifies a small edge (+0.7%) for betting on over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05. However, this edge is below the minimum threshold for placing a bet, so this is a watch situation rather than a mandatory entry. Other markets show no value, indicating cautious risk management is advisable here.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 39