Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	-	2.2	2.2	1.38	-	-
Away	0	0	0	3	2	1	1	-	-	-	3	1.65	1.65

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.05	12	29	1.01	1.04	10	-	-	-	-	1.12	6	1.61	2.3

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +30.8% | EV +67.7% | ROI +65.3% | n=38 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +19.9% | EV +43.7% | ROI +38.9% | n=38 | k=2.20

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.1% | EV -2.5% | ROI +2.9% | n=38 | k=2.30

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.3% | EV -8.1% | ROI -21.1% | n=38 | k=6.00

AI-agent: At 34 minutes in the Celta vs Elche match, Celta leads 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected in a 38% drop in odds from pre-match levels, though shot data does not clearly support dominance. Recent play shows no sustained pressure from either team. Historical data supports a bet on AH_HOME-1 with an 85.7% win rate and 65.3% ROI over 38 matches, confirmed by the model with a strong edge of +30.8% and EV of +67.7%. The best bet is AH_HOME-1 at odds of 2.20, but no new position is opened as it is already covered in the portfolio. Other markets like AH_HOME-1.5 are watch-only, while under 3.5 and 2.5 goals are not recommended. This is a favorable but monitored opportunity, balancing potential value with risk control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391151 | minute: 34