Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	2	2	0	0	-	1.38	2.2	1.38	-	-
Away	0	0	0	5	2	3	1	-	-	-	3	1.65	3

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.06	11	29	1.01	1.05	10	-	-	-	-	1.22	4.33	2	1.85

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +30.4% | EV +66.8% | ROI +72.5% | n=56 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +0.1% | EV +0.4% | ROI -3.6% | n=56 | k=3.00

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.9% | EV -1.7% | ROI -7.5% | n=56 | k=1.85

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -6.2% | EV -8.5% | ROI -6.7% | n=56 | k=1.38

AI-agent: At the 45th minute, Celta leads Elche 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected by a 38% drop in odds from pre-match levels, though shot data does not clearly support dominance. The recent phase shows some pressure from Elche, and while Celta leads, the overall gameplay balance is not decisive. Historical data strongly supports a -1 handicap on Celta with an 88.4% win rate and 72.5% ROI over 56 matches, confirmed by the model with a 30.4% edge and 66.8% expected value at odds of 2.20. Although no new bet is opened due to existing positions, this remains the best value bet with controlled risk. Other markets suggest monitoring rather than entry now.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391151 | minute: 45