Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	3	0	3	2	-	-	3.3	1.43	1.4	2.2
Away	1	0	0	4	1	3	0	-	1.65	2.85	2.75	1.32	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
7.5	3.4	1.57	2.25	1.3	1.08	-	-	1.4	2.85	2.85	1.4	7	1.1

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +41.6% | EV +91.6% | ROI +72.9% | n=28 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +18.6% | EV +24.7% | ROI +25.4% | n=28 | k=1.32

3) Watch | Double Chance 12 | Edge +3.9% | EV +5.1% | ROI -30.4% | n=28 | k=1.30

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.2% | EV -4.5% | ROI +10.0% | n=28 | k=1.40

AI-agent: At halftime, Vallecano leads Getafe 1-0 in a closely contested match with Vallecano showing more shot activity, though Getafe has applied pressure recently. The market favors Vallecano, with odds dropping 62% from pre-match levels reflecting the current score. Historical data on similar situations suggests a strong edge for a +1.5 handicap on Getafe, but the sample size is slightly below the threshold, making the historical check weak. The model identifies a promising +1.5 handicap on Getafe with a 41.6% edge and 91.6% expected value, yet entry conditions based on score and match tempo are not fully met, so this remains a watch situation. Top-4 markets confirm a monitoring stance without a mandatory bet, emphasizing careful risk control given the current dynamics and incomplete confirmation of entry rules.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391153 | minute: 45