Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	10	2	8	4	-	-	3.3	1.43	1.43	2.2
Away	1	0	0	8	4	4	0	-	1.65	2.75	2.75	1.32	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
19	3.6	1.36	3	1.25	1.02	-	-	2	1.85	7	1.1	23	1.01

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +49.2% | EV +108.2% | ROI +84.8% | n=25 | k=2.20

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +18.9% | EV +25.0% | ROI +29.9% | n=25 | k=1.32

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +11.1% | EV +15.8% | ROI -0.7% | n=25 | k=1.42

4) No Bet | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.4% | EV -2.9% | ROI +12.0% | n=25 | k=2.00

AI-agent: At 73 minutes, Vallecano leads Getafe 1-0 in this LaLiga match. Market pressure favors the away side, with odds for Vallecano significantly shortened since pre-match, reflecting confidence despite no clear shot dominance. The recent phase shows Getafe pressing hard, but the game balance remains close, similar to their previous encounter which ended 1-1. Historical data on home handicap +1.5 shows strong profitability but the sample size is slightly below the preferred threshold, making the historical edge less reliable. The model identifies a promising opportunity on AH_HOME+1.5 with a high edge and expected value, yet the entry conditions based on current score and match tempo are not fully met. Top-4 markets suggest watching this handicap with caution rather than placing a bet now, emphasizing risk control and monitoring rather than a mandatory wager.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391153 | minute: 73