Match Replay

Step 20 of 72. Current minute: 26 .

Pause Start ← Back Forward → Finish Archive Seconds per step:

← Back Step 20 of 72 Forward → Start Finish Archive

Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.7	1.45
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.67	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.12	6	1.62	2.25	3	1.4

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +4.2% | EV +6.1% | ROI -2.6% | n=469 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.1% | EV -1.9% | ROI -4.5% | n=469 | k=1.70

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.5% | EV -4.1% | ROI -1.9% | n=469 | k=1.62

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.5% | EV -7.8% | ROI -10.8% | n=469 | k=2.25

AI-agent: At 26 minutes, Mainz leads St Pauli 1-0, with market pressure favoring the visitors as odds have dropped 37% from pre-match levels. However, shot data does not confirm clear dominance by either side, and recent play shows no sustained pressure. Historically, the home handicap +1.5 has a positive win rate but a negative ROI, and this historical check is weak. The model signals a potential value bet on AH_HOME+1.5 with a 4.2% edge and 6.1% expected value, but the entry rule is not confirmed due to the weak historical validation. This is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, so risk should be carefully managed if considering a position.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 26