Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	9	4	5	2	-	-	-	1.95	1.8	1.3
Away	2	0	0	8	4	4	4	-	3.45	2.05	1.9	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
12	4	1.36	3	1.22	1.04	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.44	2.75

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +6.3% | EV +8.2% | ROI +36.3% | n=367 | k=1.30

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +9.4% | EV +17.0% | ROI +54.5% | n=367 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +4.4% | EV +12.1% | ROI +8.8% | n=367 | k=2.75

4) No Bet | Double Chance 1X | Edge -2.2% | EV -6.5% | ROI -1.9% | n=367 | k=3.00

AI-agent: At 62 minutes in the Vallecano vs Sociedad match, Sociedad leads 2-1 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the visitors, with odds dropping 49% from pre-match levels, reflecting their active play and shot dominance despite a close game. Historical data supports a strong edge on the home handicap +1.5, showing a 95.6% win rate and 36.3% ROI over 367 matches, confirming a reliable betting opportunity. The model confirms this with a 6.3% edge and 8.2% expected value, though no new bet is advised as the position is already covered. Top-4 markets recommend betting on AH_HOME+1.5 with risk control, while other options like AH_HOME+1 and Under 3.5 goals are watch-only, indicating monitoring rather than mandatory entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 62