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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	11	5	6	4	-	-	-	1.75	1.65	1.24
Away	2	0	0	10	6	4	4	-	3.9	2.3	2.12	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.4	1.91	4	1.22	1.8	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.8% | EV +55.8% | ROI -0.4% | n=192 | k=1.65

2) Watch | HOME | Edge +0.4% | EV +1.3% | ROI -31.2% | n=192 | k=3.40

3) No Bet | Double Chance 12 | Edge -2.0% | EV -3.6% | ROI -3.3% | n=192 | k=1.80

4) No Bet | AWAY | Edge -1.2% | EV -4.9% | ROI +2.8% | n=192 | k=4.00

AI-agent: At the 69th minute with the score tied at 2-2 between Vallecano and Sociedad, the market is favoring a draw, with odds dropping 42% from pre-match levels. Shot data does not clearly support dominance by either side, and recent play shows no sustained pressure from one team. Historically, similar scenarios favor the home team with an Asian Handicap +1.5, showing an 82.3% win rate and a modest positive ROI of 2.0%. The model confirms a strong edge (+14.9%) and expected value (+18.4%) on AH_HOME+1.5, but no new bet is opened as this position is already held or covered. Top-4 market signals suggest watching the home team with AH+1 due to a high edge and EV, but no mandatory bet is recommended now. This is a monitoring phase with moderate risk control advised.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391135 | minute: 69