Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	6	3	3	2	-	4.8	2.4	2.2	-	-
Away	2	0	0	6	2	4	4	-	-	-	1.7	1.6	1.18

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	1.5	4.5	1.18	2.5	1.12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.3% | EV +53.3% | ROI +48.7% | n=138 | k=1.60

2) Watch | HOME | Edge +0.5% | EV +3.2% | ROI +13.0% | n=138 | k=6.00

3) No Bet | Double Chance 12 | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.9% | ROI -23.9% | n=138 | k=2.50

4) No Bet | AWAY | Edge -0.2% | EV -0.9% | ROI -47.8% | n=138 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At the 81st minute with the score tied at 2-2 between Alaves and Athletic Bilbao, the market is favoring a draw, with odds dropping 55% from pre-match levels. Alaves have been more active in shots and pressure, especially in the recent phase, showing stronger play compared to previous encounters. Historical data strongly supports an away handicap +1 bet, with a 100% win rate in 138 similar matches and a solid ROI of 48.7%. The model indicates a +33.3% edge and +53.3% expected value on this bet at odds of 1.60. However, the entry conditions based on current score, tempo, and match stats are not fully met, so this remains a watch situation rather than a confirmed bet. Risk control suggests monitoring the handicap +1 for the away side while being cautious given the balanced scoreline and game dynamics.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1391149 | minute: 81